Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b40…e937 crypto 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,038 (-7%) realized −$2,038 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%98W / 57L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$60
14 days+$51
30 days−$623
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$2,087
other 13% −$249
crypto 4% −$2
sports 2% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +3.4% -6.5% 70% 42% -8.3%
≤30d 85 -2.6% -11.9% 64% 36% -14.5%
≤90d 141 +2.2% -7.5% 66% 40% -13.6%
all 155 -0.2% -9.7% 63% 37% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 37% -16.2%
10% -18.4% 27% -24.2%
15% -26.2% 22% -31.5%
20% -33.5% 12% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$78 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,038
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses98 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage103d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $163 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $149 +$14 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $133 +$16 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $126 +$7 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $117 +$9 +7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $109 +$9 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $94 +$15 +16%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $84 +$10 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $166 +$18 +11%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $23 +$13 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $140 +$13 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $129 +$11 +9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $484 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +16%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 21 $109 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $260 −$53 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $48 +$39 +81%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $215 −$101 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$7 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$6 -55%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $124 +$6 +5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 19 $322 +$100 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$8 -71%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$10 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$6 +29%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $547 +$29 +5%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 19 $371 −$19 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an Jun 18 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$2 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $10 −$1 -5%
ITF Monastir: Dominika Podhajecka vs Sarra Attig Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 100¢ $163 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $141 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $7 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $133 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 98¢ $133 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $126 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $117 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 96¢ $117 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $109 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $94 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 98¢ $94 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $84 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $166 2d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $23 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $140 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 97¢ $140 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $129 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $129 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 98¢ $129 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $52 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $56 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $18 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 98¢ $125 3d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 98¢ $86 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1178 history records