Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4b43…0714 crypto 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$716 (+5%) realized +$716 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%60W / 50L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,068
7 days+$709
14 days−$325
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$51
crypto 30% −$152
other 10% +$502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.7% -21.9% 47% 47% +1.2%
≤30d 45 -12.2% -20.6% 51% 49% -13.0%
≤90d 110 -8.6% -17.3% 55% 51% -7.0%
all 110 -8.6% -17.3% 55% 51% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 51% -7.0%
10% -25.2% 46% -15.9%
15% -32.4% 43% -24.0%
20% -39.1% 35% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$98 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$716
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses60 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage35d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $506 −$102 -20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,014 +$459 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $455 −$440 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $258 +$213 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$90 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $96 +$54 +56%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $203 +$213 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $611 −$601 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $747 +$270 +36%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 10 $71 −$70 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $399 +$419 +105%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $697 −$685 -98%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $255 −$250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $49 −$48 -97%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $60 +$26 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$9 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$10 -32%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $201 +$195 +97%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $238 +$214 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $193 −$190 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $101 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$16 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$6 +35%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5 May 17 $98 −$97 -98%
NEC vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 3.5 May 17 $127 −$125 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 17 $16 +$3 +21%
AZ vs. NAC Breda: O/U 3.5 May 17 $114 +$91 +80%
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5 May 17 $109 −$92 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 40¢ $404 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $1,473 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $506 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1,014 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,013 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $258 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $258 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $194 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $48 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $48 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 47¢ $611 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 67¢ $1,017 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $747 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals BUY Yes 46¢ $71 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $697 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $399 7d
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji BUY Bahcesehir Koleji 37¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records