Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b46…c4db world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$6
other 9% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 35% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 35% 0% -10.2%
all 38 +0.3% -9.3% 47% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.9%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage468d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $85 −$3 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $59 −$2 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $22 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $16 $0 -0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 26 $13 +$1 +7%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 15? Mar 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $14 $0 +1%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 10 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $40 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $40 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $4 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $4 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $32 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $40 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $39 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $39 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $44 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $14 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $43 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $45 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records