Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b46…4451
world · 145 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$61 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$453
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses54 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions58
Markets (closed)87 / 145
Avg bet$10
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 58 History 87 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$28
14 days+$14
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 60¢ $63 $74 +$12 (+18%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 67¢ 92¢ $38 $52 +$14 (+36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $37 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 36¢ 46¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+28%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 86¢ 83¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $14 $17 +$2 (+17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 64¢ 82¢ $13 $16 +$4 (+28%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 81¢ $10 $15 +$6 (+58%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 28¢ $25 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 83¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 84¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ 30¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-29%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+283%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 94¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 69¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 92¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 61¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+37%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 72¢ 85¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 67¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $20 −$10 -49%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $23 −$17 -76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $19 −$4 -21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$3 +76%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $39 +$2 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $6 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4 +$3 +79%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$2 +146%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $13 +$1 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $14 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 08 $9 +$5 +63%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $7 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $15 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $67 +$5 +7%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $17 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +50%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $3 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 63% +$22
other 13% +$7
crypto 8% −$68
sports 6% +$14
politics 5% +$5
finance 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $0 4m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 84¢ $1 8m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $2 8m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $1 10m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 12m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $3 13m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 15m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $5 15m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 82¢ $1 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 19m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 21m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $2 23m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $3 23m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 79¢ $1 28m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 30m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 45m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 67¢ $0 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 53m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 54m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $1 56m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $0 56m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 58m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 63¢ $0 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 68¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -15.0% -23.1% 53% 37% -18.4%
≤30d 84 -11.0% -19.5% 63% 32% -9.9%
≤90d 87 -11.4% -19.9% 62% 32% -10.2%
all 87 -11.4% -19.9% 62% 32% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 32% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 22% -18.8%
15% -34.5% 18% -26.6%
20% -41.0% 14% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.08 · official $453.09 (match) · 1255 history records