Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4B 0x4b47…e87c crypto 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$1,404 (+38%) realized +$1,404 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%63W / 66L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day62.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$1,063
14 days+$1,358
30 days+$1,358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,358
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 +45.1% +31.3% 46% 45% +19.0%
≤30d 129 +51.1% +36.7% 49% 48% +24.3%
≤90d 129 +51.1% +36.7% 49% 48% +24.3%
all 129 +51.1% +36.7% 49% 48% +24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.7% 48% +24.3%
10% ← realistic here +23.7% 47% +12.4%
15% +11.7% 45% +1.5%
20% +0.8% 45% -8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$21 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,404
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses63 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage7d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day62.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $69 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $126 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $237 −$207 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $281 −$46 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $170 +$229 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $79 +$222 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $179 +$121 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $40 +$40 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$27 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$43 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $46 +$14 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $45 +$45 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$43 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$58 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$61 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$44 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$37 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$64 +412%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 519 history records