Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b47…6090
crypto · 84 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$372 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$385 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$385
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses40 / 41
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage158d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 81 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$18
14 days−$43
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Up 78¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 68¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 7? No 69¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? No 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -80%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $957 −$13 -1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $132 $0 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $91 +$25 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $106 −$11 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$6 +18%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$9 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$5 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $31 −$4 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $9 −$3 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $10 +$2 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $8 +$3 +38%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $50 −$47 -94%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$45 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 13 $9 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 13 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$15 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 24 $12 +$19 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$15 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 24 $5 +$8 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$301
crypto 12% −$46
other 3% −$58
world 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 41m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $25 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $20 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $20 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 47¢ $13 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $20 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 82¢ $20 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $5 12h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL No 55¢ $4 13h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $5 13h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $0 13h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $5 13h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 13h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $20 14h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $61 14h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 90¢ $100 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 70¢ $20 14h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 89¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 5¢ $1 23h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $30 24h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $20 24h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $17 24h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $20 24h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 44¢ $17 25h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $160 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -15.5% -23.5% 62% 38% -10.6%
≤30d 30 -7.2% -16.0% 60% 43% -13.6%
≤90d 74 -7.2% -16.1% 51% 42% -19.3%
all 81 -7.2% -16.0% 49% 41% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 41% -19.1%
10% -24.1% 31% -26.8%
15% -31.4% 20% -33.9%
20% -38.1% 14% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.77 · official $14.77 (match) · 269 history records