Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b4c…1d4f crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$831 (-73%) realized −$831 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 70% −$795
crypto 30% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +22.0% +10.4% 50% 33% +10.1%
≤30d 7 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 29% +5.3%
≤90d 11 -33.5% -39.8% 27% 18% -68.3%
all 11 -33.5% -39.8% 27% 18% -68.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 18% -68.3%
10% -45.6% 18% -71.3%
15% -50.8% 18% -74.1%
20% -55.6% 18% -76.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$117 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$831
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage62d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$66 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $99 +$128 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$25 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 23 $16 −$15 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $100 −$100 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 29 $300 −$300 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 26 $200 −$200 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $195 −$195 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records