Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4B 0x4b4d…5f4a sports 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$11,247 (+12%) realized +$11,228 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%71W / 87L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$581per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$1,344est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,095
7 days+$6,235
14 days+$6,875
30 days+$4,670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$10,439
other 18% −$451
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -4.1% -13.2% 35% 35% -0.2%
≤30d 132 -5.5% -14.5% 37% 37% -4.6%
≤90d 158 +12.7% +1.9% 45% 45% +0.4%
all 158 +12.7% +1.9% 45% 45% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 45% +0.4%
10% -7.8% 44% -9.2%
15% -16.7% 42% -17.9%
20% -24.9% 38% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$733) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$776 vs −$519 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$1,991
Realized+$11,228
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses71 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,344
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage70d
Avg bet$581
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $1,971 $1,991 +$19 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,171 +$2,922 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,239 −$1,239 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $228 −$228 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $167 −$167 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $177 −$177 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $292 −$292 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 15 $552 +$468 +85%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $245 −$245 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $476 −$476 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $528 −$528 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 15 $490 −$490 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $350 −$350 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 15 $377 −$377 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1,668 −$1,668 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $220 −$220 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 15 $420 −$420 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 15 $420 −$420 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $383 −$383 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 15 $306 −$306 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $408 −$408 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $403 −$403 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $279 −$279 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $276 −$276 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $485 −$485 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $1,540 −$1,540 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $697 −$697 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,314 −$1,314 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $702 −$702 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $856 −$856 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,461 −$2,461 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $1,924 −$57 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $2,515 −$2,515 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $1,033 −$1,033 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $512 −$512 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 15 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1,252 −$1,252 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,688 −$1,688 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $540 −$540 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $405 −$405 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 15 $240 −$240 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $193 −$189 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $850 +$550 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $478 31m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1,522 32m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $193 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $245 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $850 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $485 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,171 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $4,140 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,239 8h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1,239 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $1,896 11h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $488 11h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 28¢ $490 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $856 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $167 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 35¢ $1,000 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $1,688 19h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 34¢ $403 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $2,092 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $1,003 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,461 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,449 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,562 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $712 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $540 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,668 33h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $500 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 11¢ $220 33h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 11¢ $127 36h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 11¢ $96 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,990.67 · official $1,990.67 (match) · 686 history records