Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b4d…dd64 sports 824 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$125 (+1%) realized +$111 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%330W / 455L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day53.5pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$47
14 days−$104
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$130
other 19% −$51
crypto 7% −$168
world 6% +$75
politics 4% −$2
weather 2% −$3
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% +$20
culture 0% −$3
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -8.2% -17.0% 36% 33% -12.4%
≤30d 420 -11.7% -20.1% 34% 28% -17.1%
≤90d 785 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 37% -9.7%
all 785 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 37% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 37% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 34% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 29% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses330 / 455
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions39
Markets (closed)785 / 824
History coverage45d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day53.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 785 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+11%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 53¢ 62¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? No 45¢ 64¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Yes 21¢ 31¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? No 75¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? No 64¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 75¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? No 65¢ 73¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? No 76¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? No 73¢ 81¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? No 76¢ 83¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 79¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? No 59¢ 61¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? No 73¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? No 77¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? No 54¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 49¢ 49¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? No 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -26%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $5 −$3 -50%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 18 $5 −$2 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 +$12 +28%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -14%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$3 +54%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Set 1 Winner: Kasnikowski vs Giustino Jun 16 $5 +$4 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$8 -23%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$5 -18%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $5 −$2 -40%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -60%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -62%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $9 −$2 -20%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $29 +$25 +86%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -63%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win? SELL No 64¢ $5 4m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 11¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 64¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $5 3h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $5 5h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 79¢ $5 5h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Corentin Moutet 23¢ $3 5h
Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand gene BUY No 71¢ $5 6h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 72¢ $5 6h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 29¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 65¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 57¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.25 · official $249.28 (match) · 2699 history records