Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b4f…6975 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$19 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate79%41W / 11L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day109.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$174
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +3.6% -6.3% 79% 67% -4.2%
≤30d 52 +3.6% -6.3% 79% 67% -4.2%
≤90d 52 +3.6% -6.3% 79% 67% -4.2%
all 52 +3.6% -6.3% 79% 67% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 67% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 37% -13.3%
15% -23.4% 19% -21.7%
20% -31.0% 12% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$38 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses41 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day109.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 77¢ 66¢ $125 $107 −$18 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $152 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $127 +$21 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $126 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $151 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $229 −$229 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $227 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $229 +$62 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $128 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $127 +$36 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $228 +$56 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $128 +$79 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $56 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $126 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $126 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$9 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $59 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $105 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $43 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $234 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.65 · official $90.37 · 148 history records