trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 75% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 75% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 19 | -4.1% | -13.3% | 21% | 5% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.3% | 5% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -21.6% | 5% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -29.1% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -36.1% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? | Jun 16 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 30 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? | May 30 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? | May 25 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 09 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Pacers vs. Lakers | Mar 07 | $5 | +$1 | +24% |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 10 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 09 | $363 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 09 | $1,029 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Feb 08 | $326 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 08 | $716 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Feb 05 | $632 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Feb 05 | $357 | $0 | -0% |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 05 | $329 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 04 | $322 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Feb 04 | $360 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 31 | $325 | $0 | -0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies | Jan 31 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 31 | $365 | $0 | -0% |