Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b51…de5e crypto 321 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (260 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%85W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day260.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$499
7 days−$298
14 days−$305
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (260 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 318 -18.2% -26.0% 27% 26% -13.4%
≤30d 321 -19.0% -26.7% 26% 26% -13.5%
≤90d 321 -19.0% -26.7% 26% 26% -13.5%
all 321 -19.0% -26.7% 26% 26% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover260.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 26% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 24% -21.7%
15% -40.1% 22% -29.3%
20% -46.0% 19% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$23 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses85 / 236
Open positions0
Markets (closed)321 / 321
History coverage7d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day260.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 321 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$23 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $115 +$142 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $119 −$119 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $83 +$214 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$176 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$36 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $58 +$22 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +126%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$41 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $45 −$14 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $94 +$283 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $64 +$394 +616%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$30 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2117 history records