Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b53…b48e sports 147 markets active 1d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$185 (-5%) realized −$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%80W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$53
14 days−$90
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$86
crypto 5% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -24.3% -31.5% 49% 37% -23.4%
≤30d 145 -14.5% -22.7% 55% 44% -13.0%
≤90d 145 -14.5% -22.7% 55% 44% -13.0%
all 145 -14.5% -22.7% 55% 44% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 44% -13.0%
10% -30.1% 34% -21.3%
15% -36.8% 21% -28.9%
20% -43.0% 11% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses80 / 65
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage21d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$8 -37%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 +$6 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$8 +74%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$5 +89%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $14 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$8 -55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $11 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY 5¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 62¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 36¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records