Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b56…ae77 crypto 48 markets active 4d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$39
sports 37% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -17.2% -25.1% 50% 43% -15.5%
≤30d 48 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 44% -13.2%
≤90d 48 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 44% -13.2%
all 48 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 44% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 44% -13.2%
10% -28.4% 35% -21.5%
15% -35.3% 21% -29.1%
20% -41.7% 17% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $14 +$25 +180%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $37 −$1 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $3 +$1 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $16 −$1 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $5 +$10 +199%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $38 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $4 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $5 3d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 57¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records