Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4b56…b641 other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,334 (-1%) realized −$1,334 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$633per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$19
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,035
politics 34% −$35
sports 8% −$244
culture 3% −$3
economics 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% −$27
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -0.5% -10.0% 6% 1% -10.7%
all 145 -2.8% -12.1% 19% 10% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 10% -10.8%
10% -20.5% 10% -19.4%
15% -28.2% 8% -27.2%
20% -35.2% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$882) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized−$1,334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage156d
Avg bet$633
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $579 $579 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $222 $221 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,765 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,649 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $984 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $4,449 −$5 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $218 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $462 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $401 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,754 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $857 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,577 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,266 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 01 $611 +$3 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 29 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $664 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $243 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont Apr 21 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $339 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $2,458 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,815 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2,416 −$2 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,482 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,843 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,467 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $891 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $745 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $89 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $463 18h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $463 19h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $579 22h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,011 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,012 4d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $728 4d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $729 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $983 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $984 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $865 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $867 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $896 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $897 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $916 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $918 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $958 10d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $959 10d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,054 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 11d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,070 12d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,019 12d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,021 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $772 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $773 15d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $881 15d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $882 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $781 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $783 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.32 · official $800.32 (match) · 490 history records