Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b5a…7618 sports 793 markets active 1d ago coverage 304d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 303d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,244 (-8%) realized −$6,244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%331W / 582L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,592
7 days−$4,659
14 days−$4,696
30 days−$5,172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,177
crypto 12% −$843
other 6% −$275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 221 -40.7% -46.3% 21% 19% -75.5%
≤30d 409 -25.8% -32.9% 33% 30% -51.5%
≤90d 491 -21.8% -29.2% 36% 33% -43.6%
all 913 -14.2% -22.3% 36% 35% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 35% -16.8%
10% -29.8% 32% -24.8%
15% -36.6% 30% -32.1%
20% -42.8% 27% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$76 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses331 / 582
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)913 / 793
History coverage304d ⚠
Avg bet$101
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 913 Trades
no open positions (396 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Weibo Gaming Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
BLAST Bounty: MOUZ vs. Spirit Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Wimbledon: Ofner vs. Paul Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. Weibo Gaming Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Phillies vs. Yankees Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Vitality Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
IEM Cologne: FlyQuest vs. Liquid Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
ATP Toronto – Tiafoe vs. Vukic Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
ATP Washington D.C – Evans vs. Moutet Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -42%
IEM Cologne: G2 vs. FURIA Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
League of Legends: Hanwha Life Esports vs. KT Rolster Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
League of Legends: Anyone's Legend vs. Invictus Gaming Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
League of Legends: Nongshim Red Force vs. KT Rolster Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
ATP Umag – Taberner vs. Darderi Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Natus Vincere Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. DRX Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
ATP Toronto – Munar vs. Cerundolo Jun 17 $93 +$3 +3%
Swiss Open: Comesana vs. Carballes Baena Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Titans vs. Falcons Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Giants vs. Diamondbacks Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
IEM Cologne: Aurora vs. Spirit Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Tigers vs. Nationals Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras vs. Chelsea (To Advance) Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Dortmund vs. Monterrey (To Advance) Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
ATP Washington D.C: Kovacevic vs. Tiafoe Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
ATP Washington D.C: Svajda vs. Lehecka Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
ATP Kitzbuhel – Bublik vs. Shevchenko Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
IEM Cologne: FURIA vs. Astralis Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Wimbledon: Pavlyuchenkova vs. Osaka (W) Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
League of Legends: EDward Gaming vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
IEM Cologne: Falcons vs. FURIA Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. Liquid Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Swiss Open: Shevchenko vs. Bublik Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Mets vs. Royals Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
ATP Washington D.C – Fritz vs. Arnaldi Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Wimbledon: Monday vs. Paul Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Mets vs. Royals Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Victor Ponta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ATP Washington D.C: Shelton vs. McDonald Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Rockies vs. Reds Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. FunPlus Phoenix Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Suns vs. Kings Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
ATP Umag – Ruiz vs. Carabelli Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
IEM Cologne: FaZe vs. Natus Vincere Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
ATP Washington D.C: Norrie vs. Musetti Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Royals vs. Mariners Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
ATP Washington D.C: Arnaldi vs. Sonego Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Shelton vs. Zverev Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $13 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $19 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $18 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $13 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $22 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $15 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $12 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $8 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $13 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $22 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $13 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records