Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b5b…529a
crypto · 60 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$135 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$148 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$136
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses11 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 60
History coverage1d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day3440.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$148
14 days−$148
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 79¢ 72¢ $107 $97 −$11 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 19¢ 28¢ $27 $40 +$13 (+48%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $275 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $373 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $259 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $213 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $235 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $186 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $338 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $276 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $230 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $369 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $355 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $308 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $390 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $308 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $229 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $241 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $390 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $395 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $313 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $453 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $443 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $435 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $545 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $300 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $330 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $324 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $166 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $357 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $347 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $347 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $384 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $362 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $194 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $375 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $477 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $308 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $305 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $56 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $364 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $163 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $77 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $71 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -9.2% -17.8% 17% 2% -10.4%
≤30d 65 -9.2% -17.8% 17% 2% -10.4%
≤90d 65 -9.2% -17.8% 17% 2% -10.4%
all 65 -9.2% -17.8% 17% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3440.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 2% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 2% -19.0%
15% -32.9% 2% -26.8%
20% -39.4% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.41 · official $135.43 (match) · 3500 history records