Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4b5c…9b00 other 5 markets active 6d ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-63%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$12
sports 24% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-53.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -36.2% -42.2% 50% 25% -52.5%
≤30d 4 -36.2% -42.2% 50% 25% -52.5%
≤90d 5 -48.9% -53.8% 40% 20% -69.5%
all 5 -48.9% -53.8% 40% 20% -69.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.8% 20% -69.5%
10% -58.2% 20% -72.4%
15% -62.3% 20% -75.1%
20% -66.0% 0% -77.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage36d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records