Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b5d…138d crypto 449 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%220W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$58
14 days−$655
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$421
other 0% −$14
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -25.3% -32.4% 31% 25% -33.3%
≤30d 190 -0.3% -9.8% 48% 45% -11.0%
≤90d 433 -5.1% -14.1% 48% 37% -13.9%
all 449 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 38% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 38% -12.7%
10% -21.9% 31% -21.1%
15% -29.4% 26% -28.7%
20% -36.4% 23% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses220 / 229
Open positions0
Markets (closed)449 / 449
History coverage98d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 449 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$22 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $109 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $34 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $58 +$50 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $57 +$51 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $65 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $49 +$12 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $53 +$48 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $62 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $61 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $24 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $99 −$76 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $102 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $99 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $84 −$81 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $30 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $22 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $109 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $62 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1114 history records