Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b5f…480a sports 264 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,318 (-24%) realized −$3,317 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%82W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$221est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days−$1,201
14 days−$1,391
30 days−$3,266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$2,739
other 8% −$670
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -19.1% -26.8% 28% 28% -41.0%
≤30d 155 -26.1% -33.1% 28% 28% -44.7%
≤90d 258 -21.8% -29.3% 32% 32% -32.1%
all 258 -21.8% -29.3% 32% 32% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 32% -32.1%
10% -36.0% 31% -38.6%
15% -42.2% 31% -44.5%
20% -47.9% 31% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$50 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$3,317
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses82 / 176
Est. fees paid−$221
Open positions2
Markets (closed)258 / 264
History coverage49d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $26 +$58 +226%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $88 +$129 +146%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $25 +$22 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$67 +262%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $33 −$33 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $76 −$75 -98%
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 20 $25 +$44 +172%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$94 +237%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $42 −$41 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $9 +$9 +94%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $127 −$125 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 +$42 +165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 +$61 +238%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $54 −$4 -7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $37 +$43 +118%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $130 −$128 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $75 −$31 -41%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 +$50 +172%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$62 +606%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $26 −$22 -85%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $55 −$41 -75%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $26 −$23 -91%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$83 -81%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $93 −$91 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$25 +97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $84 −$82 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 24¢ $26 8m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $25 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $88 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $26 11h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 36¢ $25 12h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 12h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ $32 13h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $25 13h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $33 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $25 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 24¢ $26 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $26 36h
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 36h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY 35¢ $10 37h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $4 42h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $42 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic BUY 28¢ $18 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 51¢ $9 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 32¢ $26 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $26 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $26 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $25 2d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $25 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $26 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.21 · official $48.66 (match) · 440 history records