Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b60…4456 other 54 markets active 2d ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$13
other 12% −$11
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% −$10
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.3% 0% 0% -32.2%
≤30d 16 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 6% -10.7%
≤90d 41 -11.9% -20.3% 20% 7% -12.3%
all 53 -9.4% -18.0% 21% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 6% -10.2%
10% -25.9% 6% -18.8%
15% -33.0% 6% -26.7%
20% -39.6% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage630d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $6 +$6 +90%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $48 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $8 +$3 +42%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $17 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $17 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $32 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $201 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 45h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 4d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 12d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 21d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 28d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals BUY New York Mets 52¢ $6 28d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $16 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.98 · official $27.98 (match) · 334 history records