Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b62…1253 sports 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$89 (+0%) realized +$89 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%233W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$812
crypto 5% +$25
other 3% −$1
world 1% −$73
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -31.0% -37.6% 33% 33% -17.3%
≤30d 6 -31.0% -37.6% 33% 33% -17.3%
≤90d 196 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 45% -11.3%
all 408 -13.8% -22.1% 57% 40% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 40% -13.4%
10% -29.5% 30% -21.7%
15% -36.3% 22% -29.3%
20% -42.6% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses233 / 175
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)408 / 408
History coverage140d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 408 Trades
no open positions (155 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $116 +$74 +64%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 +$78 +150%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 16 $16 +$13 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 16 $18 +$11 +62%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 16 $23 +$16 +71%
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline May 16 $24 +$15 +61%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $60 +$20 +32%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 16 $15 +$4 +28%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 16 $23 +$7 +28%
1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline May 13 $75 +$19 +26%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 13 $94 +$31 +33%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) May 12 $16 −$15 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 12 $17 −$16 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 12 $18 −$18 -99%
1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 12 $172 +$28 +16%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline May 10 $13 −$12 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $31 +$25 +80%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 10 $20 +$24 +116%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $116 +$44 +38%
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 10 $17 +$13 +78%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 10 $12 +$8 +67%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $81 +$49 +60%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline May 09 $18 +$2 +8%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 09 $17 −$5 -28%
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 09 $21 −$20 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 09 $9 +$7 +81%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 09 $206 +$44 +22%
Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline Apr 23 $61 +$9 +15%
1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Apr 22 $26 −$26 -99%
1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Apr 22 $78 −$28 -36%
Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline Apr 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 22 $47 −$46 -98%
1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Apr 22 $41 −$41 -99%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Apr 21 $16 −$16 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $52 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $60 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $116 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 7h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Spurs 98¢ $22 32d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) SELL Spurs 98¢ $29 32d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) SELL Spurs 98¢ $2 32d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) SELL Spurs 98¢ $20 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves $2 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves $4 32d
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Spurs 98¢ $29 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline SELL Spurs 97¢ $19 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline SELL Spurs 97¢ $10 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 67¢ $20 32d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $16 32d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 57¢ $23 32d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 60¢ $18 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 68¢ $34 32d
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $21 33d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 60¢ $24 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.00 · official $130.00 (match) · 1436 history records