Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4B 0x4b63…1923 crypto 433 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,011 (+0%) realized +$1,011 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%377W / 56L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$931per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$43
14 days+$620
30 days+$643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$233
other 41% +$74
sports 6% +$672
politics 6% +$11
culture 1% −$3
economics 0% −$2
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -2.3% -11.6% 97% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 69 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 1% -8.6%
≤90d 167 -0.5% -9.9% 98% 1% -9.1%
all 433 -0.1% -9.6% 87% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,198) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,011
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses377 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)433 / 433
History coverage210d
Avg bet$931
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 433 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $76 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $844 +$1 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $91 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1,965 +$47 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1,881 +$19 +1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,898 +$2 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $126 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Team to Take First Corner Jun 21 $70 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1,898 +$2 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $3 $0 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 21 $667 +$1 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,898 +$2 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $999 +$1 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $856 +$1 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $74 $0 +0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $248 $0 +0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,698 +$2 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $627 +$1 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $495 +$5 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $691 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $113 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $299 −$299 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $86 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $1,914 +$86 +4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2,098 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,979 +$21 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,980 +$20 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $752 +$648 +86%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $653 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,347 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 9? Jun 09 $376 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 9? Jun 09 $392 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 9? Jun 09 $622 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 8? Jun 08 $440 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 8? Jun 08 $317 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $18 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $8 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $65 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $76 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $43 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $147 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $649 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 100¢ $150 18h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 100¢ $352 18h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 100¢ $1,497 18h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 98¢ $98 24h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 98¢ $1,868 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $1,759 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $7 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $12 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $50 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $40 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $9 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $899 45h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $172 45h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $742 45h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $39 45h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $46 45h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $2 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Team to Take First Corner BUY Belgium 100¢ $68 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Team to Take First Corner BUY Belgium 100¢ $1 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1136 history records