Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b64…0dec sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$136 (-34%) realized −$99 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$1
other 32% −$100
economics 26% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-65.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -61.8% -65.5% 33% 33% -52.9%
≤30d 3 -61.8% -65.5% 33% 33% -52.9%
≤90d 3 -61.8% -65.5% 33% 33% -52.9%
all 3 -61.8% -65.5% 33% 33% -52.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.5% 33% -52.9%
10% -68.8% 0% -57.4%
15% -71.8% 0% -61.5%
20% -74.6% 0% -65.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$57 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $95 +$14 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 40h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $95 3d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $104 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.02 · official $153.02 (match) · 8 history records