Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b6e…1647 sports 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$428 (-13%) realized −$428 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$313
7 days−$322
14 days−$494
30 days−$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$328
other 45% −$166
crypto 2% −$24
culture 1% +$26
world 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -27.9% -34.7% 39% 36% -19.7%
≤30d 45 -34.5% -40.7% 33% 31% -23.3%
≤90d 45 -34.5% -40.7% 33% 31% -23.3%
all 69 -20.2% -27.8% 39% 38% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 38% -22.8%
10% -34.7% 35% -30.2%
15% -41.0% 29% -37.0%
20% -46.8% 23% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$29 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage187d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $190 −$186 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $98 +$91 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $192 −$93 -49%
Panama vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $154 −$125 -81%
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 +$65 +64%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $208 +$149 +72%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $16 +$18 +114%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $45 −$29 -64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $99 −$54 -55%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$12 -77%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $251 +$77 +31%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $185 +$67 +36%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $129 +$56 +44%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $316 −$187 -59%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $61 +$31 +51%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $178 +$25 +14%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $31 +$9 +28%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $328 +$25 +8%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $19 −$7 -35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 −$37 -66%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$33 -80%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$8 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$34 -67%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $37 +$16 +43%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +147%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$33 -64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$33 -65%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 12 $5 +$4 +85%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $1 $0 -32%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 02 $4 +$1 +13%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 28 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Keir Starmer say "Christmas" during the next Prime Minister's Que Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $190 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $190 20h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $98 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 29¢ $98 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $192 22h
Panama vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 15¢ $29 24h
Panama vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $154 28h
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $357 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $208 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $35 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $45 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $45 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $99 3d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $328 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $251 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $252 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $185 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 154 history records