Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b6e…4d80 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3455 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,106 (+17%) realized +$4,106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 35L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day3455.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$824
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3455 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 35% -12.5%
≤30d 55 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 35% -12.5%
≤90d 55 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 35% -12.5%
all 55 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 35% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3455.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 35% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 35% -20.9%
15% -25.2% 35% -28.6%
20% -32.5% 35% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
57.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$627 vs −$382 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$448
Trades / day3455.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $414 −$398 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $402 +$1,083 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $221 −$221 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $198 +$396 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $448 −$448 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $423 −$423 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $200 +$300 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $200 +$295 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $450 −$304 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $388 −$388 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $446 +$940 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $151 +$446 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $200 +$200 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $641 −$641 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $200 +$196 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$15 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $488 −$488 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $457 +$943 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $206 +$190 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $450 +$950 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $391 −$391 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $250 +$740 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $140 +$136 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $503 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $493 −$441 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $290 +$304 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $409 −$332 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $754 −$754 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $1,353 −$1,353 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $947 +$1,932 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $384 +$1,136 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $400 −$340 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $398 +$592 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records