Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4b70…5ddb other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$2 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$1
world 25% −$4
other 23% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 5 +10.7% +0.1% 60% 60% -8.6%
≤90d 7 -21.0% -28.5% 43% 43% -11.4%
all 10 -24.6% -31.8% 40% 30% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 30% -15.7%
10% -38.3% 0% -23.8%
15% -44.3% 0% -31.1%
20% -49.8% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage148d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 88¢ 88¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 58¢ 57¢ $54 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 28 $66 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 20 $1 $0 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 20 $2 $0 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 20 $2 $0 +21%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Feb 27 $2 $0 -1%
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 27 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.15 · official $159.15 (match) · 28 history records