Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4b71…17ee crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$40 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$39
other 33% −$9
sports 7% $0
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 47% -17.4%
≤30d 19 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 47% -17.4%
≤90d 19 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 47% -17.4%
all 19 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 47% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 47% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 42% -25.3%
15% -21.6% 42% -32.5%
20% -29.3% 37% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)19 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 74¢ 66¢ $90 $81 −$9 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 66¢ 50¢ $95 $73 −$22 (-23%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 85¢ 94¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 10¢ 50¢ $3 $14 +$11 (+394%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 86¢ 50¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $83 −$52 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$11 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$4 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 23m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $43 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.23 · official $326.23 (match) · 77 history records