Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b71…ad0a crypto 59 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$131 (-13%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$140
other 12% +$10
sports 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -12.4% -20.8% 51% 44% -22.7%
≤30d 59 -12.4% -20.8% 51% 44% -22.7%
≤90d 59 -12.4% -20.8% 51% 44% -22.7%
all 59 -12.4% -20.8% 51% 44% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 44% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 39% -30.1%
15% -35.3% 32% -36.8%
20% -41.6% 25% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$25 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 7¢ $9 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records