Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4B 0x4b72…9a6b other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$188 (+16%) realized +$188 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$118
14 days+$173
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$143
sports 35% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +12.9% +2.1% 72% 72% +2.2%
≤30d 19 +13.6% +2.7% 74% 74% +4.5%
≤90d 19 +13.6% +2.7% 74% 74% +4.5%
all 19 +13.6% +2.7% 74% 74% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 74% +4.5%
10% -7.1% 58% -5.5%
15% -16.1% 32% -14.6%
20% -24.3% 21% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$31 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$15 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$23 +46%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $51 +$34 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$20 +39%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$42 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $213 +$56 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $49 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 40¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $49 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $58 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $50 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $50 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $50 28h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $63 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 95¢ $64 43h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $50 45h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $51 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $50 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $50 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $50 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $50 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $51 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 89¢ $94 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $51 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $50 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $9 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $41 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $51 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $51 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 68¢ $50 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $51 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $155 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $50.00 · 41 history records