Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:55:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b74…e8d7 other 198 markets active 15d ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46,716 (+13%) realized +$46,496 · open +$220
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate80%129W / 33L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1,795per market
Trades / day106.0pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5,447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$504
world 25% +$2,457
other 17% +$209
politics 6% +$237
sports 4% +$1,222
economics 3% $0
finance 2% −$3
tech 1% +$533
culture 0% +$6
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -65.3% -68.6% 33% 0% -69.8%
≤30d 30 +45.7% +31.9% 80% 27% -9.3%
≤90d 162 +23.5% +11.7% 80% 19% -8.5%
all 162 +23.5% +11.7% 80% 19% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.7% 19% -8.5%
10% +1.0% 12% -17.3%
15% ← realistic here -8.8% 10% -25.2%
20% -17.7% 9% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$836) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$87 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$5,447
Realized+$46,496
Unrealized+$220
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses129 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions52
Markets (closed)162 / 198
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$1,795
Trades / day106.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $418 $416 −$2 (-1%)
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $387 $387 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $357 $358 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $298 $325 +$27 (+9%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $267 $269 +$2 (+1%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $231 $231 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $215 $215 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $196 $197 +$1 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 86¢ $194 $195 +$1 (+1%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 69¢ 87¢ $149 $188 +$39 (+26%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $188 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $177 $177 +$0 (+0%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $162 $166 +$5 (+3%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 93¢ 96¢ $136 $139 +$3 (+2%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $133 $133 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 +$0 (+0%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 11¢ $3 $109 +$107 (+4075%)
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 99¢ 100¢ $107 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $99 $105 +$6 (+6%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 88¢ $77 $105 +$28 (+37%)
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 94¢ $85 $91 +$5 (+6%)
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $81 $83 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 29 $942 −$942 -100%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 29 $80 −$227 -283%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $483 +$20 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $5 +$67 +1329%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $95 +$109 +115%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $422 +$104 +25%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $162 $0 +0%
Will Seo Jae-heon win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $89 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $145,968 +$416 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $214 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $89 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 03 $327 +$61 +19%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 03 $5,366 +$1 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $597 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $38,108 +$96 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $2,173 $0 -0%
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 +$6 +32%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 01 $31 +$3 +11%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $372 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $162 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 01 $87 +$87 +100%
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, Jun 01 $34 $0 +1%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 01 $62 +$2 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $9,660 +$10 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $215 +$19 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $4,744 +$81 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1,864 +$357 +19%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $108 $0 +0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 30 $4,653 +$102 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $1,262 +$28 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 30 $86 +$90 +105%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? May 30 $66 +$60 +90%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May? May 30 $44 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 29? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $149 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $262 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $420 +$88 +21%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1,177 −$66 -6%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 18 $451 +$5 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $2,937 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $12,487 +$707 +6%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 17 $938 +$117 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $8,649 +$11 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 17 $2,345 +$4 +0%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 17 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 17 $73 $0 +0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 17 $503 +$57 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No $17 14d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes $5 16d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No $17 17d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No $29 17d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No $3 17d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No $10 17d
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY Yes $4 18d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No $22 18d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No $8 18d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No $1 18d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No $18 18d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No $6 18d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No $5 18d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? BUY No $4 18d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? BUY No $8 18d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $74 21d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $118 21d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $108 21d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $89 21d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $544 25d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $10 25d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $123 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,980 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9,960 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4,960 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4,960 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4,945 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9,950 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14,970 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,446.62 · official $5,445.35 (match) · 3500 history records