Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b76…a17d crypto 37 markets active 3h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-5%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$74
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +11.7% +1.0% 57% 57% -15.3%
≤30d 37 +11.7% +1.0% 57% 57% -15.3%
≤90d 37 +11.7% +1.0% 57% 57% -15.3%
all 37 +11.7% +1.0% 57% 57% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 57% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 57% -23.4%
15% -17.5% 54% -30.8%
20% -25.5% 46% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$37 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $129 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$34 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$79 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$61 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$30 +114%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $129 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $19 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 35h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records