Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b7e…0cc2 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$3
other 20% +$1
politics 19% $0
sports 12% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 1% −$2
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 11 -3.3% -12.5% 27% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 11 -3.3% -12.5% 27% 0% -9.2%
all 45 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage274d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $43 +$3 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $27 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 05 $8 $0 +3%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Oct 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 02 $30 $0 -2%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 27 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 19 $1 $0 +39%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $9 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $43 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 38h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $45 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $45 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $45 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $45 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $45 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $46 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $43 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records