trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+41%) |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-10%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-17%) |
| Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-25%) |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-30%) |
| Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-50%) |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-54%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | Jun 14 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $15 | −$4 | -27% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $2 | +$13 | +650% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $2 | +$1 | +49% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | Jun 12 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET | Jun 12 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | Jun 12 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | Jun 12 | $5 | +$3 | +56% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | Jun 12 | $4 | +$10 | +246% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 29% | 29% | -25.3% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 29% | 29% | -25.3% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 29% | 29% | -25.3% |
| all | 14 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 29% | 29% | -25.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -4.8% | 29% | -25.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -13.9% | 29% | -32.5% |
| 15% | -22.2% | 29% | -39.0% |
| 20% | -29.8% | 21% | -45.0% |