Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b81…17f7
other · 48 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
−$456 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$295 · open −$161
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,590
Realized−$295
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions16
Markets (closed)32 / 48
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%
Chart Positions 16 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $390 $404 +$14 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $496 $392 −$104 (-21%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $239 $237 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $235 $201 −$34 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $160 $151 −$9 (-6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $99 $95 −$4 (-4%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $61 $28 −$32 (-53%)
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+30%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+71%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-37%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? No 5¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? No 18¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? No 74¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $171 +$160 +94%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $64 −$36 -56%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $203 −$88 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $183 −$64 -35%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 03 $150 −$2 -2%
Will Serge Gnabry be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $24 −$9 -38%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 05 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $45 −$27 -59%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 05 $4 $0 +4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 04 $149 −$144 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $80 −$40 -50%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $150 +$238 +159%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $100 −$38 -38%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $294 +$252 +86%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $150 +$61 +41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $100 +$102 +102%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $238 +$211 +89%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $350 +$62 +18%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 30 $105 +$105 +100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 28 $30 +$23 +75%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Mar 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $140 +$5 +4%
Solana above $255 on November 29? Nov 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% −$201
sports 8% −$33
politics 4% −$194
crypto 0% −$27
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $240 1h
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 15h
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 29h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 38h
Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 4d
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 4d
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4d
Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 5d
Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 7d
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $332 7d
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $28 7d
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $38 7d
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 7d
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $115 7d
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $121 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 50¢ $120 7d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $28 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 75¢ $183 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $148 8d
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 9d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9d
Will Serge Gnabry be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -37.6% -43.5% 20% 10% -22.4%
≤90d 29 -19.0% -26.7% 38% 31% -13.9%
all 32 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 28% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 28% -16.5%
10% -37.3% 25% -24.5%
15% -43.3% 25% -31.8%
20% -48.9% 22% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,589.97 · official $1,589.97 (match) · 339 history records