Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4b82…749a politics 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$16
politics 39% −$17
sports 12% +$85
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 132 +1.2% -8.5% 10% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 7% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×15.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)132 / 135
History coverage133d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $295 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $265 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $442 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $211 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $247 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $237 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $214 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $239 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $264 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,484 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $233 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $249 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $277 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $299 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $469 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $275 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $278 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $488 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $244 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $284 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $449 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 2h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 2h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 27d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 29d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $265 29d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $265 38d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $247 38d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $247 40d
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $225 40d
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $225 41d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $202 41d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $202 47d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $211 47d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $211 48d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $247 48d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $247 48d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $237 48d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $237 49d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 49d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 49d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $232 49d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $232 50d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 50d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 51d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $239 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.91 · official $103.91 (match) · 382 history records