Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4b82…2291 sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,626 (+45%) realized +$5,422 · open −$796
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$3,415
other 13% +$393
tech 1% −$50
world 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +43.8% +30.1% 54% 54% +43.0%
≤30d 35 +43.8% +30.1% 54% 54% +43.0%
≤90d 35 +43.8% +30.1% 54% 54% +43.0%
all 35 +43.8% +30.1% 54% 54% +43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.1% 54% +43.0%
10% ← realistic here +17.7% 54% +29.3%
15% +6.3% 54% +16.8%
20% -4.1% 49% +5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$376 vs −$165 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,256
Realized+$5,422
Unrealized−$796
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 43
History coverage2d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Over 74¢ 52¢ $959 $668 −$291 (-30%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 47¢ 26¢ $493 $278 −$215 (-44%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ 18¢ $200 $127 −$73 (-36%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners Over 57¢ 32¢ $200 $110 −$90 (-45%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 52¢ 12¢ $100 $24 −$76 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $485 −$485 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 +$60 +58%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $302 +$318 +105%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $404 +$949 +235%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 +$583 +568%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,069 +$720 +67%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $243 +$241 +99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $254 −$254 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 +$38 +37%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $308 −$308 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $283 −$283 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $589 +$506 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $204 +$485 +237%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $204 +$482 +236%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $476 +$499 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $288 +$290 +101%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $101 +$44 +43%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$432 +212%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$231 +226%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $187 +$299 +160%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $242 +$683 +282%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $501 18m
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $966 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $204 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 20¢ $163 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $213 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $485 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $102 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $270 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $619 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $302 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $131 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 6h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $103 17h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 17h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 83¢ $685 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 22¢ $98 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 7¢ $172 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 32¢ $102 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,789 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 33¢ $204 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $484 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $40 18h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 18h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 23¢ $140 18h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $687 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,256.37 · official $1,452.42 · 89 history records