Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b84…48e3 crypto 1300 markets active 5d ago coverage 967d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,941 (-9%) realized −$2,941 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate63%818W / 482L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$293
14 days−$139
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$1,014
crypto 32% −$209
other 13% −$966
world 4% −$737
politics 2% −$97
culture 0% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -32.2% -38.7% 33% 33% -30.4%
≤30d 112 +0.8% -8.8% 66% 63% -16.6%
≤90d 654 -31.9% -38.4% 43% 41% -66.5%
all 1300 -7.4% -16.2% 63% 39% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 39% -17.6%
10% -24.3% 28% -25.4%
15% -31.6% 20% -32.7%
20% -38.3% 14% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

967d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,941
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses818 / 482
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1300 / 1300
History coverage967d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1300 Trades
no open positions (101 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $960 −$366 -38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $270 +$112 +41%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $281 +$11 +4%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $174 +$108 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 07 $182 −$8 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $140 +$43 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 22 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 22 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 22 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 22 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 22 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 22 $7 +$8 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 22 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 22 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 22 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 22 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 22 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 22 $19 +$21 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 22 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $39 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 8¢ $39 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $382 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $382 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $270 6d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 75¢ $270 6d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $285 9d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 76¢ $285 9d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $293 9d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 96¢ $281 9d
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? SELL No 100¢ $282 9d
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 61¢ $174 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $174 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $182 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $182 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 76¢ $140 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $11 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $9 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2938 history records