Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4B 0x4b87…02b6 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$310 (+18%) realized +$309 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$203
14 days+$330
30 days+$507
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$304
sports 10% +$26
crypto 7% +$177
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +141.1% +118.1% 100% 100% +94.2%
≤30d 7 +68.9% +52.8% 71% 71% +62.7%
≤90d 7 +68.9% +52.8% 71% 71% +62.7%
all 7 +68.9% +52.8% 71% 71% +62.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.8% 71% +62.7%
10% +38.2% 71% +47.1%
15% +24.8% 71% +32.9%
20% +12.6% 71% +19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$58 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.35 per $1 lost it wins $5.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$309
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage15d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$76 +249%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $69 +$69 +100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $77 +$57 +74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $223 +$245 +109%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $68 −$67 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $118 +$177 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.66 · official $29.66 (match) · 19 history records