Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b8a…f4a4 other 694 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (165 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,750 (-21%) realized −$10,379 · open −$371
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate42%221W / 311L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day164.7pace
Fees−$276est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$8,552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1,152
sports 30% +$746
finance 14% −$851
world 7% +$70
politics 4% +$925
weather 2% +$114
crypto 1% +$23
tech 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (165 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 384 +4.4% -5.5% 34% 20% -20.4%
≤30d 532 +9.3% -1.1% 42% 23% -9.8%
≤90d 532 +9.3% -1.1% 42% 23% -9.8%
all 532 +9.3% -1.1% 42% 23% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover164.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 23% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 16% -18.5%
15% -19.2% 13% -26.4%
20% -27.1% 11% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +36% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$22 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$8,552
Realized−$10,379
Unrealized−$371
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses221 / 311
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$276
Open positions297
Markets (closed)532 / 694
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$74
Trades / day164.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 297 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Up 73¢ 69¢ $1,648 $1,559 −$90 (-5%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Down 18¢ 14¢ $494 $391 −$103 (-21%)
Will Kai Havertz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 84¢ $152 $232 +$81 (+53%)
Will Congo DR be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 89¢ $220 $203 −$17 (-8%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30? No 66¢ 80¢ $161 $195 +$33 (+21%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $355 Week of June 15 2026? No 60¢ 78¢ $123 $160 +$36 (+29%)
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 90¢ $84 $149 +$65 (+77%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 53¢ 49¢ $152 $141 −$11 (-7%)
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 90¢ $91 $130 +$40 (+44%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 67¢ 56¢ $147 $123 −$24 (-16%)
Will the announcers say "What A Player" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? No 27¢ 63¢ $47 $110 +$64 (+136%)
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? No 31¢ 33¢ $98 $106 +$8 (+8%)
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $105 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 49¢ $78 $97 +$19 (+25%)
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 55¢ 52¢ $102 $95 −$7 (-7%)
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 74¢ $79 $85 +$6 (+8%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 78¢ 56¢ $113 $81 −$32 (-28%)
Will Erling Haaland score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 72¢ $84 $79 −$5 (-6%)
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 61¢ 50¢ $91 $75 −$16 (-18%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 88¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+2%)
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? No 72¢ 72¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 65¢ $87 $68 −$18 (-21%)
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea? No 54¢ 69¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+29%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $107 $62 −$44 (-41%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 44¢ 38¢ $66 $58 −$8 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 203 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Wesley be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $470 on January 28? Jun 18 $7 −$15 -200%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of November 10 above $1,160? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of January? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will iHeartMedia (IHRT) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of November? Jun 18 $58 −$64 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on March 3? Jun 18 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Tesla reach $518 in November? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 2 above $225? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$43 -123%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of November 17 above $570? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275-$280 on the final day of trading of th Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in January? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29? Jun 18 $0 +$3 +5244%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $285? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of January 12 above $420? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$300 in 2025? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +104%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $186-$188 on the final day of trading of Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Ella McCay" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2.5m? Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Will "Ella McCay" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$430 on the final day of trading of th Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 12 above $180? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5) Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $122 end of November? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 14? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $245–250 in 2025? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on January 29? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on January 7? Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +2970%
Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of November 10 above $215? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $185? Jun 18 $4 +$15 +336%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $106 end of November? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will New York City record the first snowfall? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Workday (WDAY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of January 19 above $435? Jun 18 $26 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY No 50¢ $5 5m
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY No 69¢ $69 21m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 67¢ $31 34m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 18¢ $36 37m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 66¢ $3 38m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 66¢ $2 44m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $9 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $0 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 24¢ $7 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 23¢ $51 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $0 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 25¢ $13 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 70¢ $35 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 69¢ $17 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $130 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 60¢ $180 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 70¢ $280 1h
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $649 1h
Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 49¢ $107 1h
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $70 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 72¢ $11 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 71¢ $44 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 18¢ $37 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 71¢ $108 1h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Mexico vs South Korea SELL No 79¢ $2 1h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Mexico vs South Korea SELL No 79¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,552.40 · official $8,543.19 (match) · 3500 history records