Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4b8c…9e5d crypto 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,523 (-19%) realized −$3,809 · open −$714
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%48W / 174L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day103.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,656
7 days−$2,253
14 days−$1,869
30 days−$1,132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3,503
crypto 13% −$1,545
other 10% −$352
economics 10% −$344
finance 9% −$136
tech 6% −$73
sports 3% −$604
politics 2% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -31.4% -38.0% 22% 20% -17.9%
≤30d 191 -29.6% -36.3% 24% 16% -8.2%
≤90d 222 -34.3% -40.5% 22% 15% -9.0%
all 222 -34.3% -40.5% 22% 15% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.5% 15% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -46.2% 11% -17.7%
15% -51.4% 9% -25.6%
20% -56.2% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -43% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$35 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized−$3,809
Unrealized−$714
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses48 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions29
Markets (closed)222 / 210
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$114
Trades / day103.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 50¢ 43¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 14¢ 14¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $284 $30 −$254 (-90%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $39 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $31 $28 −$4 (-11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $24 +$8 (+50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $32 $20 −$12 (-38%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 26¢ 8¢ $48 $15 −$32 (-68%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-49%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $231 $9 −$222 (-96%)
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $131 $8 −$122 (-94%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $9 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-48%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-78%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-88%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $9 $1 −$7 (-83%)
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+193%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 17 $9 −$16 -173%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? Jun 17 $35 −$38 -108%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Jun 17 $50 −$96 -192%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -3084%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -190%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Jun 17 $1 −$11 -1399%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jun 17 $25 −$134 -545%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 17 $3 −$772 -28338%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? Jun 17 $5 +$27 +568%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? Jun 17 $9 −$4 -39%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 17 $0 −$27 -19899%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.60 April 27-May 3? Jun 17 $11 −$8 -73%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.80 April 27-May 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jun 17 $323 −$323 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Jun 17 $322 −$372 -116%
Will XRP reach $1.70 April 27-May 3? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 4? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Jun 17 $0 −$20 -13188%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -179%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? Jun 17 $12 −$43 -352%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? Jun 17 $23 −$227 -975%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 17 $1 −$21 -3133%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 4? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? Jun 17 $7 −$13 -177%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 4? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$55 -1233%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Jun 17 $88 −$102 -116%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Jun 17 $34 −$3 -8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 17 $31 +$9 +30%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the Jun 17 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 17 $45 −$12 -27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $737 +$820 +111%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the Jun 17 $25 −$6 -23%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -18%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $54 −$13 -23%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $139 +$19 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 17 $40 +$10 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $22 3m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 38¢ $37 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 21¢ $40 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 23¢ $18 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 23¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 31¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 31¢ $23 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 31¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 30¢ $19 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 15-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $17 4h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the SELL Yes 0¢ $3 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $22 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $59 4h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 14¢ $22 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 9¢ $9 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.27 · official $337.57 · 3500 history records