Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b8f…30db
sports · 131 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$263 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$263 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses84 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage124d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 2 History 129 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Pelicans Clippers 72¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Devils vs. Rangers Rangers 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Misa Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Karmine Corp Blue 55¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nuggets 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $38 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$32 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 11 $58 +$2 +3%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 23 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 23 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 23 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Quali Apr 23 $53 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 31 $10 +$10 +105%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 31 $20 +$11 +54%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Misa Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Mar 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Miami Open: Anastasia Zakharova vs Anna Bondar Mar 23 $10 +$5 +49%
Devils vs. Rangers Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Players vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Seri Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 19 $1,372 −$758 -55%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Mar 19 $54 −$11 -20%
Lafayette Leopards vs. Holy Cross Crusaders Mar 19 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs G2 NORD (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division G Mar 19 $276 −$276 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 19 $106 −$8 -8%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during the State of the Union address? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 19 $354 −$327 -93%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Playoffs Mar 19 $1,260 +$62 +5%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $20 +$5 +25%
Counter-Strike: DashSkins vs Crashers (BO3) - CCT South America Series Mar 19 $20 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 19 $39 +$1 +4%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $15 −$10 -69%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Mar 18 $15 −$6 -43%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $67 +$20 +30%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 18 $118 −$79 -67%
Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision? Mar 18 $4 +$5 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% +$380
other 10% −$595
crypto 2% −$49
politics 0% −$6
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 23m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 24m
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL FaZe Vegas 100¢ $17 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 44% -11.7%
≤30d 18 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 44% -11.7%
≤90d 51 -16.7% -24.7% 53% 37% -41.0%
all 129 +0.2% -9.3% 65% 48% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 48% -10.4%
10% -18.0% 33% -19.0%
15% -25.9% 19% -26.8%
20% -33.2% 15% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.71 · official $21.71 (match) · 652 history records