Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b92…7c8f crypto 511 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized −$103 · open +$32
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate61%305W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days+$155
14 days+$577
30 days+$487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$326
sports 27% +$299
other 13% −$150
world 13% −$482
weather 3% −$65
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +15.4% +4.4% 83% 69% -3.1%
≤30d 85 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 44% +6.1%
≤90d 499 -1.8% -11.2% 61% 9% -10.8%
all 499 -1.8% -11.2% 61% 9% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 9% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 6% -19.3%
15% -27.4% 5% -27.1%
20% -34.6% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,146
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses305 / 194
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions12
Markets (closed)499 / 511
History coverage57d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 25¢ 18¢ $425 $302 −$123 (-29%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score No 76¢ 100¢ $227 $297 +$70 (+31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 92¢ $59 $192 +$133 (+223%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Under 43¢ 63¢ $108 $158 +$50 (+47%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 69¢ 92¢ $62 $83 +$21 (+33%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 92¢ 100¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+9%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 87¢ 100¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+15%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 50¢ 48¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 69¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+45%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 75¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $95 +$1 +1%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$6 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $271 +$15 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $138 +$17 +12%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $74 +$25 +34%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $72 +$40 +55%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $21 +$23 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $36 +$6 +17%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$19 +97%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $87 +$11 +13%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $74 +$21 +29%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $70 +$31 +44%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $17 −$12 -70%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +109%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $11 +$4 +40%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $45 +$5 +12%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $39 +$13 +34%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $275 +$87 +32%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $92 +$50 +54%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $67 +$55 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $250 −$250 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $12 +$16 +129%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $77 +$9 +12%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 +$3 +68%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $3 −$2 -62%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 +$1 +57%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 +24%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $18 +$7 +36%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 +21%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 +$4 +65%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $18 −$15 -80%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $4 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 76¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 66¢ $6 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 66¢ $6 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 71¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 70¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 71¢ $19 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 70¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 43¢ $45 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 43¢ $19 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 43¢ $45 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $134 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $44 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 69¢ $9 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 68¢ $14 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $3 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 92¢ $38 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $36 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $6 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $18 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $84 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,145.56 · official $1,171.84 · 1420 history records