Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b95…da49 world 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate41%36W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$12
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$2
politics 14% −$4
sports 14% +$13
other 14% +$4
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% −$26
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.4% -9.9% 32% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 72 -2.9% -12.1% 35% 4% -9.6%
all 88 +2.6% -7.2% 41% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 10% -9.9%
10% -16.1% 6% -18.5%
15% -24.2% 5% -26.4%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses36 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage541d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $76 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $38 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $121 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $149 −$12 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $89 −$3 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $96 +$10 +11%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $49 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $98 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $42 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $39 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $12 +$4 +31%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $123 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $61 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $58 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $38 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $37 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $26 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $12 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $22 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.36 · official $42.01 (match) · 352 history records