Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4B 0x4b99…a328 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$149 (+37%) realized +$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +47.3% +33.3% 62% 62% +39.5%
≤30d 10 +34.6% +21.8% 60% 60% +37.4%
≤90d 10 +34.6% +21.8% 60% 60% +37.4%
all 51 +13.7% +2.9% 43% 43% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 43% +18.0%
10% -7.0% 41% +6.7%
15% -16.0% 41% -3.6%
20% -24.2% 37% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage97d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$112 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 31 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 25 $5 +$12 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 23 $5 +$11 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 23 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 23 $5 +$11 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 22 $5 +$10 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 22 $5 +$14 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 22 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 22 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 22 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 22 $5 +$16 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 22 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 22 $5 +$13 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 21 $3 +$5 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 21 $5 +$11 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records