Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b9c…c182
world · 56 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$464 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$532 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3,622
Realized−$532
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions26
Markets (closed)30 / 56
Avg bet$148
Trades / day91.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 26 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,126
7 days−$532
14 days−$532
30 days−$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,086 $1,116 +$30 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 61¢ 69¢ $527 $599 +$71 (+14%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 93¢ 98¢ $530 $556 +$26 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 31¢ 47¢ $125 $191 +$66 (+53%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? No 87¢ 96¢ $156 $170 +$15 (+9%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? No 42¢ 24¢ $305 $170 −$136 (-44%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 77¢ 72¢ $133 $126 −$7 (-5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 44¢ 40¢ $101 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? No 93¢ 98¢ $74 $77 +$3 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? No 43¢ 32¢ $102 $76 −$26 (-25%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $61 $64 +$3 (+5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 32¢ 78¢ $23 $57 +$33 (+143%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $83 $56 −$26 (-32%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Yes 53¢ 38¢ $74 $53 −$21 (-28%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $43 $49 +$6 (+13%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 23¢ 34¢ $30 $44 +$13 (+44%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 56¢ 66¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+19%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $46 $24 −$21 (-47%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $14 $22 +$8 (+55%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 19¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 59¢ 46¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-22%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 57¢ 78¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+38%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 63¢ 97¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+55%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? No 82¢ 93¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $16 +$2 +13%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 11 $577 −$75 -13%
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $54 +$31 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $49 −$11 -22%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $12 +$6 +50%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $59 −$5 -8%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $73 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $362 −$118 -32%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$10 +107%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: Lavked (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs WRAITH PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 10 $194 −$142 -73%
Map Handicap: SWIM (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (+1.5) Jun 10 $103 −$103 -100%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 10 $84 −$84 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $639 −$604 -95%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $121 +$40 +34%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $4 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $89 −$27 -30%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $128 −$72 -56%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $169 +$31 +18%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 05 $480 −$49 -10%
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 05 $78 +$45 +58%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $44 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $498 +$624 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$132
sports 36% −$461
other 17% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $41 2m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 39m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 39m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 95¢ $190 41m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 41m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 95¢ $190 41m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 41m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 95¢ $190 41m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 44m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 95¢ $190 44m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 44m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 95¢ $77 44m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 44m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 95¢ $19 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? SELL No 24¢ $6 1h
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 43¢ $18 1h
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? SELL No 25¢ $17 1h
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? SELL No 25¢ $8 1h
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? SELL No 25¢ $21 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 2h
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? SELL No 28¢ $23 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 52¢ $13 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 54¢ $3 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 55¢ $36 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.5% -20.0% 40% 33% -21.8%
≤30d 30 -11.5% -20.0% 40% 33% -21.8%
≤90d 30 -11.5% -20.0% 40% 33% -21.8%
all 30 -11.5% -20.0% 40% 33% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover91.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 33% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 27% -29.3%
15% -34.6% 20% -36.1%
20% -41.0% 17% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,621.84 · official $3,621.93 (match) · 701 history records