Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b9f…2c57 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$8
other 25% −$1
politics 13% $0
sports 9% $0
weather 5% −$2
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -11.0%
all 37 +0.4% -9.2% 24% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -10.1%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.7%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage318d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 67¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $55 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $52 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $35 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $116 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $66 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $51 $0 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $5 $0 -8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $8 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 16 $3 $0 +9%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 10 $22 $0 -0%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 10 $23 $0 -1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 10 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on August 8? Aug 07 $56 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $54 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $4 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $50 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $55 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $5 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $14 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $13 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $19 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $8 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $11 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $19 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $13 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $46 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $35 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $9 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $27 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 47¢ $14 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 47¢ $38 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $4 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.27 · official $54.27 (match) · 125 history records