Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4ba0…c440 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% $0
politics 20% $0
other 14% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -4.5% -13.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage568d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Nov 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? Aug 23 $1 $0 -0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Aug 23 $0 $0 -17%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $1 $0 +0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Jul 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $186 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $0 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 07 $0 $0 +0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 05 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $11 24d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $11 24d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 56d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 56d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 79d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 79d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $12 94d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $12 94d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 97d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 115d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 144d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 144d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 181d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 181d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $11 205d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $11 205d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 232d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 232d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $10 264d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $10 264d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes $0 295d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 295d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes $1 295d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 335d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 335d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 335d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 369d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 369d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records