Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4ba1…80fe world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$11
other 36% +$2
politics 4% $0
finance 4% +$1
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 -2.6% -11.9% 40% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 20 -2.6% -11.9% 40% 0% -10.6%
all 43 -1.2% -10.6% 35% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage303d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $111 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $122 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $47 −$10 -22%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $26 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $44 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $43 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 15 $12 $0 +4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $28 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Nov 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $7 $0 +3%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $40 +$1 +4%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $19 56m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $15 56m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $34 26h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $34 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $37 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $47 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.35 · official $33.35 (match) · 144 history records