Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4ba1…0b0d crypto 145 markets active 5d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,032 (-10%) realized −$1,032 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%67W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$333
14 days−$901
30 days−$1,342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,292
sports 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 44% -28.2%
≤30d 145 -10.4% -19.0% 46% 40% -20.5%
≤90d 145 -10.4% -19.0% 46% 40% -20.5%
all 145 -10.4% -19.0% 46% 40% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 40% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 33% -28.1%
15% -33.8% 30% -35.0%
20% -40.3% 26% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$46 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,032
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses67 / 78
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage21d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$28 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $133 −$100 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $108 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $205 −$135 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $128 −$26 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $127 +$26 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $157 −$98 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $158 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $78 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$14 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$33 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$47 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$18 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 06 $105 −$81 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 06 $109 −$33 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $49 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $71 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $87 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 584 history records